On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement following two rebounds from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1574. Consolidation above the 1.1645 level didn't lead to significant changes, but I believe this level may still serve traders well. A close above this mark today would support the euro and further growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1712. Conversely, a rebound from 1.1645 could lead to a return to 1.1574.

The wave pattern on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, and the last upward wave did not surpass the previous high. Thus, the trend remains bullish despite the prolonged correction. The absence of substantial progress in U.S. trade negotiations, the low probability of agreements with most partners, and the introduction of new tariffs continue to create unfavorable conditions for sellers, despite their recent activity.

This week's economic calendar features only one major event. There will, of course, be economic data releases, speeches by central bank officials, and new statements from Donald Trump. However, the data is expected to be secondary, central bankers haven't delivered any major surprises lately, and what Trump says next remains anyone's guess. Therefore, the most significant upcoming event is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.

For the first time in a long while, it is highly likely that the ECB will leave all three key interest rates unchanged — something the central bank has been signaling in recent weeks. Traders have repeatedly heard that inflation has nearly reached its target, but due to the trade war between the U.S. and the EU, it may accelerate slightly in the second half of 2025. As such, there is no longer a need for monetary easing, and the outlook is uncertain, making further rate cuts potentially risky.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated below the 1.1680 level and dropped out of the ascending trend channel. This indicates that the bullish trend may be reversing into a bearish one, at least technically. Despite the U.S. dollar gaining for three consecutive weeks, its fundamental backdrop remains weak. The current growth in the dollar looks slow and more like a corrective pullback. The fundamental issues weighing on the dollar have not gone away. A bullish divergence also suggests that the upward trend may resume.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 971 new long positions and closed 6,654 short positions. Sentiment in the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish — supported by Donald Trump's policies — and continues to strengthen. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 242,000, compared to 113,000 short positions. That's more than a twofold difference.

Also, note the number of green cells in the upper table — these indicate a strong increase in euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, meaning demand for the dollar is falling.

For 23 consecutive weeks, large players have been cutting short positions and increasing longs. While there is a significant policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve, Donald Trump's political course is currently a more decisive factor for traders, as it could trigger a recession in the U.S. and numerous other long-term structural issues.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

On July 21, the economic calendar contains no significant entries. As a result, news will have no influence on market sentiment today.

EUR/USD Forecast and Recommendations for Traders:

I do not recommend selling the pair today, as recent price movements have been too weak and inconsistent. Buying opportunities were available after a rebound from the 1.1574 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1645 — which has already been reached. Today, new long positions may be considered upon a close above 1.1645, with a target at 1.1712.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1574 to 1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214 to 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.