Trade Review and Advice for the British Pound

The outlined price levels were not tested in the first half of the day, so I ended up without any trades.

The speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli had no impact on the market or the British pound. The market, as if hardened by financial storms, remained unmoved in the face of rhetoric that would usually trigger at least a surge, if not a full-blown wave.

Now, the focus has shifted to U.S. economic data. New home sales data in the U.S. will be relevant in the current environment. Any deviation from forecasted values—whether a sharp spike or an unexpected drop—can lead to strong market moves. Powell's comments may also put pressure on the dollar. Investors will be looking for fresh insight into the likelihood of a rate cut this fall. Any statements regarding inflation, employment, or the pace of economic growth could instantly affect financial markets and exchange rates.

As for the intraday strategy, I'll be relying more on the execution of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy the pound today after the price reaches the entry point around 1.3636 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to 1.3686 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3686, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move downward from this level. A rise in the pound today can be expected following weak data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3598 level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3636 and 1.3686 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the pound today after updating the 1.3598 level (red line on the chart), which may lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3539, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Sellers will act in the event of strong data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3636 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3598 and 1.3539 can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit or suggested level for manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit or suggested level for manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – use overbought/oversold zones as guidance when entering the market

Important:Beginner Forex traders must exercise great caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market mood are an inherently losing strategy for any intraday trader.