Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 144.28 during the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential, so I remained out of the market.

The upcoming release of wholesale inventory data is unlikely to have a major impact on currency exchange rates. Typically, wholesale inventory reports do not cause significant fluctuations in the forex market. The main event is undoubtedly the negotiations between China and the U.S. The outcome of these talks will have a major impact on the global economy and financial markets. Any signs of progress toward a trade agreement will undoubtedly boost the U.S. dollar and strengthen export-oriented currencies. Conversely, failed negotiations or escalating trade tensions will prompt investors to abandon the dollar and open long positions in the Japanese yen and other currencies. It's important to note that currency market movement today will primarily be driven by news out of London, where the negotiations are taking place, as well as statements from representatives of both countries.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches around 144.21 (green line on the chart) with a target of 144.59 (thicker green line on the chart). At 144.59, I plan to exit the long position and open a short in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point movement from the entry point. A good rise in the pair can be expected after successful negotiations.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 143.96 level when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward 144.21 and 144.59 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after it breaks below 143.96 (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a quick decline. The primary target for sellers will be 143.55, where I plan to exit the short position and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move. Selling pressure is expected to return if the U.S. statistics are weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 144.21 level when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop toward 143.96 and 143.55 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – projected price to set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – projected price to set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – It is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner forex traders should be very cautious when making market entries. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without a stop-loss, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade large volumes.And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.