Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 147.59 in the first half of the day occurred as the MACD indicator started to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying dollars, which resulted in a gain of more than 40 pips.

In the second half of the day, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August will be released, and a decrease in this indicator will restore demand for the Japanese yen, significantly weakening the dollar. The CPI excluding food and energy prices is also crucial. Lower inflation could ease pressure on the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see approach, which would negatively impact the attractiveness of the US dollar. The Japanese yen, traditionally considered a safe-haven currency, may benefit from dollar weakness. In periods of economic uncertainty and declining risk appetite, investors often turn to the yen as a reliable asset, driving demand for it and strengthening its position. The CPI excluding food and energy will be particularly important, as it reflects core inflation. A decline in this indicator would further strengthen the case for a more dovish Fed policy and increase pressure on the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry point around 148.03 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level 148.61 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.61, I will exit buys and open sells in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip downward move from this level. Counting on further growth of the pair will only be possible after strong US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.80 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may lead to an upward reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 148.03 and 148.61 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price breaks below 147.80 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.03, where I will exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 pip upward move from this level. Downward pressure on the pair will return on weak US data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.03 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and may lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 147.80 and 147.03 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.