Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1735 occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 20 pips.

Today is marked by the release of fresh data on the dynamics of France's industrial sector and a speech by the head of Germany's central bank, Joachim Nagel. The Eurogroup meeting will also be in focus.

The French data will move the market only if actual figures differ from expectations. Joachim Nagel's speech also attracts traders' and analysts' attention. The Bundesbank president usually takes a tough stance, but his comments on inflation processes and the future monetary policy of the European Central Bank could determine the intraday direction of the euro. The market will closely watch for hints of possible changes in interest rates and other measures aimed at stabilizing the economy. The Eurogroup meeting, despite its political significance, is unlikely to lead to immediate changes in the currency markets. The issues discussed are generally long-term and do not have an instant impact on quotes. However, it is worth remembering that any premature publication of information or unexpected statements following the meeting can still provoke a particular market reaction.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro once the price reaches around 1.1794 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1826. At 1.1826, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. Count on euro growth only if the data are good. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1769 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.1794 and 1.1826 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the 1.1769 level is reached (red line on the chart). The target is the 1.1737 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip move from the level). Pressure on the pair may return today in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1794 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1769 and 1.1737 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.