Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The first test of the 1.1659 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I didn't make a purchase. The second test, at 1.1659, while the MACD was in overbought territory, enabled the implementation of Scenario #2 for selling, which led to a 25-point drop in the pair.

The published data on Germany's Consumer Price Index exceeded analysts' expectations, which had a positive impact on the euro. However, despite this positive momentum, the euro is likely to face serious challenges in the near future. Inflationary pressures are showing signs of easing, which could affect the European Central Bank's rate policy plans. The regulator will have to strike a balance between containing inflation and supporting economic activity. It is expected that the ECB will continue to lower interest rates cautiously, but not as aggressively as before.

Today, no macroeconomic data releases are scheduled, which could potentially lead to temporary stabilization of the EUR/USD exchange rate. Market participants will likely focus on speeches by ECB officials, as well as statements from Trump and any new developments in trade negotiations. Let me remind you that there is still no agreement between the EU and the U.S.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible around the 1.1654 level (indicated by the green line on the chart), with an intention to rise toward 1.1690. At 1.1690, I plan to exit the market and open a short position in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the 1.1616 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels, at 1.1654 and 1.1690, can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once the price reaches 1.1616 (indicated by the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1585, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point reversal from the level. Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the 1.1654 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward 1.1616 and 1.1585 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.