The wave pattern of the EUR/USD 4-hour chart has transformed, but overall it still appears quite clear. There is no indication that the upward trend segment that began in January 2025 has been canceled, but the wave structure since July 1 has become significantly more complex and extended. In my view, the instrument is currently forming corrective wave 4, which has taken on an unconventional shape. Within this wave we see exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt regarding the corrective nature of the decline.

In my opinion, the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets extend up to the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e series looks complete, and therefore I expect a new upward wave sequence to form in the coming weeks. We have already seen one upward wave, and the instrument is now in the process of forming a downward wave. Consequently, we can assume that we are seeing waves 1 and 2 of a new trend segment. If this assumption is correct, wave 2 may stretch to 38.2%–61.8% of wave 1. Therefore, the third wave may begin from the 1.1541–1.1587 level.

The EUR/USD rate fell by 15 basis points on Wednesday, and this is exactly how the instrument has been moving recently—about 15 points per day. This week, the trading range has been very narrow, and there has been no news background. Even today's inflation report released in the Eurozone cannot be called an "important" event. Inflation reports in the EU used to have high market significance when the ECB was actively easing monetary policy. Now, for several consecutive meetings, the ECB has kept rates unchanged, so monitoring inflation changes has lost much of its meaning. The consumer price index has been stabilized around 2%, so there is no need to either raise or cut rates at this time.

For a month and a half the market had no access to the data that currently determine monetary policy parameters — namely Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. Tomorrow, after a long wait, the September data will be released, but it is difficult to even guess how the market will react. Many analysts believe that even a slight beat in labor market forecasts may be enough to revive demand for the U.S. dollar. Personally, I doubt that, because the recent Nonfarm Payrolls figures cannot be called "strong." Therefore, the report may exceed market expectations but is unlikely to be truly "robust." In my view, the dollar remains in the "risk zone."

General conclusions

Based on the conducted EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build its upward trend segment. Over the past few months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's stance remain significant factors that may contribute to future weakness in the U.S. dollar. The targets for the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. At the moment, a new upward wave sequence may be beginning. I expect the third wave of this sequence—whether wave c or wave 3—to start from the 1.1541–1.1587 level. In any case, in the coming days I am considering long positions with targets around 1.1740.

On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave pattern is not the most standard, as the corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this also happens. I would remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on the chart rather than being tied to every individual wave. At the moment, the bullish structure is unquestionable.

The main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to interpret and often imply changes.
2. If you are unsure about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty regarding market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.