Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the European Currency

The test of the 1.1552 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the trade ended up in a loss.

Business sentiment and current economic condition indicators in Germany showed a significant deterioration, which slightly weakened the euro's position in the first half of the day. However, due to a generally strong overall report for the eurozone, there was no major euro sell-off. The decline in German indices seems to be caused by a combination of various factors, including ongoing supply chain disruptions, so it is unlikely that we'll see strong economic performance by the end of the year.

In the second half of the day, only the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be released, but no major market movements should be expected. However, that does not mean there will be none at all. While the NFIB indicator is not among the most influential, it still provides insight into the general mood in the small business sector, which is known to be one of the key drivers of the U.S. economy. Positive data showing growing optimism could indirectly support the U.S. dollar, as it indicates business confidence in growth prospects. Conversely, negative data could put pressure on the U.S. currency.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible once the price reaches the area around 1.1582 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 1.1599. At 1.1599, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected only after weak U.S. statistics.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1547 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1582 and 1.1599 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1547 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1530, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move back from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S. data turns out to be very strong.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1582 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1547 and 1.1530 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – Entry price level where you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Expected level where you can place a Take Profit or manually fix profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price level where you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Expected level where you can place a Take Profit or manually fix profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner traders on the Forex market must make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.