Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of 147.45 coincided with MACD moving far above zero, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, which turned out to be correct.

A sharp 0.5% rise in Japan's services activity index supported the yen. As a key part of the Japanese economy, growth in services reflects improved consumer and business confidence, potentially boosting domestic demand and easing recession fears, which favorably affects the attractiveness of the yen. Still, one indicator should not be overestimated. The situation on the currency markets is complex and influenced by many factors, including tomorrow's interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. The yen's long-term strength will depend on sustained growth and a tighter Bank of Japan policy, which has so far this year been in no hurry to raise rates further, only occasionally mentioning such a possibility. Since the BoJ has been reluctant to hike further this year, yen appreciation depends heavily on economic resilience and foreign capital inflows. Otherwise, the current rebound may just be a pause before renewed weakening.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: Buy USD/JPY at 147.12 (green line) with a target of 147.53 (thicker green line). Exit at 147.53 and consider shorts for a 30–35 pip reversal. Best to buy on corrections and deeper pullbacks. Important! Confirm MACD is above zero and just starting to rise before buying.
• Scenario #2: Buy if there are two consecutive tests of 146.88 when the MACD is oversold. This would limit downside and trigger a reversal upward. Targets: 147.12 and 147.53.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: Sell only after a breakout below 146.88 (red line), targeting 146.48, where I plan to exit and reverse into buys for a 20–25 pip bounce. Prefer selling at higher levels. Important! Confirm MACD is below zero and just starting to fall before selling.
• Scenario #2: Sell if there are two consecutive tests of 147.12 when MACD is overbought. This would limit upside and trigger a reversal downward. Targets: 146.88 and 146.48.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.