Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3518 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential.

In the second half of the day, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August will be released, and a decline in this indicator will restore demand for the British pound, significantly weakening the dollar's position. The CPI excluding food and energy prices is also important. Investors and traders constantly analyze every point of the report carefully, trying to anticipate the Federal Reserve's next moves. It is expected that the Fed will make decisions based on the latest data, and any signs of declining inflation may cause it to take a more dovish stance. The impact on the British pound will be direct. If US inflation is lower than forecast, this will likely lead to a weakening of the dollar. In turn, this will make the pound sterling more attractive to investors seeking alternative currencies.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today after the price reaches the entry point around 1.3525 (the green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the 1.3582 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3582, I will exit my buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 pips down from this level. A strong rise in the pound today can be expected after weak US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3502 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3525 and 1.3582 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price moves below the 1.3502 level (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3464, where I plan to exit sell trades and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20–25 pips up from this level. The pound will likely drop if there is higher inflation data from the US. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3525 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3502 and 1.3464 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.