Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The price test at 1.1654 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started to rise from the zero level, which confirmed a valid buy entry for the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 25 points and continues to move upward.

The complete lack of fundamental statistics is clearly helping the euro to rise. However, further developments will depend on the European regulator. The ECB's decision not to cut interest rates could be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the state of the European economy, which may lead to further growth of the pair. However, it is important to note that such a policy may also slow down economic recovery if it turns out to be too restrictive.

As for the short-term outlook, later today in the U.S., the Leading Index will be published. This indicator is not considered a key predictor of economic performance, but in the absence of other fundamental data, market participants will closely examine whether the index confirms or contradicts current forecasts about the pace of U.S. economic growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mostly rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro upon reaching the 1.1682 level (green line on the chart) with the target of a rise to 1.1719. At 1.1719, I plan to exit the market and open a short position in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong euro rally today may continue the current upward trend. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero level and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1658 price level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal back upward. A rise to the opposing levels of 1.1682 and 1.1719 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1658 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1619, where I will exit the market and open a long position in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move from the level. Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero level and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1682 price level, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposing levels of 1.1658 and 1.1619 is likely.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – Suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – Suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders

Entering the market should be done with great caution. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of key fundamental releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect risk management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market sentiment is a losing strategy for any intraday trader.