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18.07.2025 12:02 PM
Stock market on July 18: SP500 and NASDAQ continue their rally

As of yesterday, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.54%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.75%. The industrial Dow Jones strengthened by 0.52%.

Today, US and European stock index futures rose, pointing to a potential continuation of the record-setting rally across global markets, as strong economic data eased concerns about the state of the U.S. economy. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% after both indices reached all-time highs on Thursday. European equity futures rose by 0.4%. Asian stocks added 0.4% following a record-high close in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. shares. Its upbeat outlook bolstered confidence in artificial intelligence investment. Japanese stocks fell alongside government bond yields ahead of the upcoming weekend elections.

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The dollar regained most of its previous losses and traded flat after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that policymakers should cut interest rates this month to support a labor market showing signs of weakness. This statement, amid growing concerns about slowing economic growth, triggered a mixed reaction in financial markets. On one hand, rate cuts are usually seen as a positive signal that encourages investment and consumer spending. On the other hand, inflation worries remain, and an overly aggressive rate cut could accelerate inflation.

Treasuries advanced across the curve. Cryptocurrencies also rose after Congress passed the first federal law regulating stablecoins. Clearly, as long as the US economy continues to grow and unemployment remains low, consumer spending will persist, driving higher stock prices. June's growth in US retail sales eased fears of declining consumer activity. Jobless claims in the U.S. fell for a fifth consecutive week, reaching the lowest level since mid-April, underscoring the labor market's resilience.

The White House's shift in stance on the chip supply ban involving Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. sparked speculation about a major tech deal between Washington and Beijing.

Regarding interest rates, the European Central Bank may delay its final rate cut until December, and investors are not yet ready to interpret this as the end of the easing cycle. Today's speeches from European officials may shed more light on this issue.

Meanwhile, Jerome Powell remains under pressure from Representative Anna Paulina Luna, who announced she is referring the Fed Chair's case to the Department of Justice for investigation over alleged perjury. Powell, for his part, responded to White House criticism of the Federal Reserve over a $2.5 billion renovation project by stating in a letter, " take seriously the responsibility to be good stewards of public resources."

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As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance at $6,320. This would confirm further growth and open the path to a new level at $6,331. An equally important task for the bulls is to gain control above $6,343, which would further strengthen their position. In case of a downward move amid fading risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves near $6,308. A breakout below this level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,296 and open the way to $6,285.

Jakub Novak,
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