Trade Breakdown and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The first test of the 144.14 price level occurred when the MACD had already moved well below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test of this level came as the MACD entered oversold territory, which enabled the realization of Scenario #2 for buying and led to a 25-point rise.

The central focus of today will be the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. This report will be closely scrutinized by investors and traders, although it is unlikely to reveal anything particularly new. The market's primary interest lies in identifying any signs of disagreement within the Federal Open Market Committee about whether to cut interest rates at the next meeting or to maintain a wait-and-see stance. Expectations of rate cuts may influence USD/JPY volatility. Otherwise, demand for the dollar is likely to persist.

For intraday strategy, I'll be leaning more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 144.59 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 145.26 (thicker green line on the chart). I plan to exit long positions and initiate sell positions at 145.26, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from that level. There's still room for a continued rise in the pair.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 144.05 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit downward potential and prompt a reversal to the upside. A rise to 144.59 and 145.26 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below 144.05 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick drop in the pair. The main target for sellers would be 143.44, where I'll exit short positions and potentially initiate long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 144.59 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward momentum and trigger a downward reversal. A drop toward the 144.05 and 143.44 levels can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected Take Profit level or point to manually lock in gains, as growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected Take Profit level or point to manually lock in gains, as decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear and structured plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are usually a losing strategy for intraday traders.