Trade review and tips for trading the euro

The price test of 1.1845 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Weak inflation data in the euro area, which fell to the target of 2.0%, is holding back EUR/USD growth, as it gives the European Central Bank the freedom to cut rates promptly if necessary. For this reason, the ECB will most likely approach decision-making with caution, carefully assessing all possible risks.

In the current economic situation, the most probable scenario is maintaining the existing policy, providing room for maneuver depending on future developments.

In the second half of the day, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a cut in the key interest rate, presumably by 0.25%. However, the main focus will be on the updated economic projections and the committee's future plans regarding further stimulus measures. The rate cut itself is already priced in, so the context and outlook are what matter most. The details—wording in the meeting minutes and individual committee members' assessments—are of key importance.

Fed Chair Powell's statement will be closely analyzed, and any slight downward revisions to forecasts could trigger active dollar selling and euro buying.

As for intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at around 1.1864 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.1945. At 1.1945 I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-point move from the entry level. Counting on euro growth is only reasonable if the Fed's forecasts turn out weak. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1831 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1864 and 1.1945.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1831 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1762, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back from this level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the Fed maintains a firm stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to move downward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1864 price level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1831 and 1.1762.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.