Trade Review and Euro Trading Recommendations

The test of the 1.1551 level in the first half of the day coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I didn't sell the euro and remained out of the market.

Positive ZEW economic sentiment index figures for both Germany and the eurozone exceeded analysts' expectations. However, the euro failed to show strong growth and remained under pressure. The low trading volume and volatility in the first half of the day were clearly driven by investors' uncertainty about the future course of the geopolitical crisis.

During the U.S. session, we await quite interesting data on changes in retail sales, industrial production, and manufacturing output. These releases may trigger volatility in the EUR/USD pair. Investors and traders will be closely watching these macroeconomic indicators as they may shed light on the current state of the U.S. economy.

Retail sales, in particular, are a key measure of consumer spending, which comprises a significant portion of U.S. GDP. An increase in retail sales signals economic strength and consumer confidence, typically supporting the U.S. dollar. Conversely, a decline may indicate slowing growth and dollar weakness.

Industrial and manufacturing output are also important indicators of a country's economic health. Increases in these figures signal rising production activity and economic expansion. Declines, on the other hand, may suggest the onset of recession.

Altogether, these data points can significantly influence market expectations regarding future actions by the Federal Reserve.

Intraday Strategy Focus

For now, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Buy the euro today on a move to the 1.1575 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1634. At 1.1634, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point retracement. Euro growth today is possible after weak U.S. data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1551 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. A rise to 1.1575 and 1.1634 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after a decline to the 1.1551 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1491, where I intend to exit and buy immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point retracement). Downward pressure on the pair will return if U.S. data is strong. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1575 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1551 and 1.1491 can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – anticipated take profit level, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – anticipated take profit level, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – use overbought and oversold zones to guide market entries

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

Forex beginners must be very cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before key fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.