Trend Analysis:

In July, a downward movement may begin from the 1.1786 level (the closing price of the June monthly candle), targeting 1.1551 — the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line). From this level, an upward market move is possible, with a target at 1.1710 — a historical resistance level (light blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Monthly Chart).

Indicator Analysis:

• Indicator-based analysis – downward
• Fibonacci levels – downward
• Volumes – downward
• Candlestick analysis – downward
• Trend analysis – downward
• Bollinger Bands – downward

Conclusion from the comprehensive analysis: a downward trend is possible.

Overall forecast for the EUR/USD monthly candle: the price is likely to show a downward trend, with no upper shadow on the monthly black candle (first week of the month – black), and the presence of a lower shadow (last week of the month – white).

Alternative Scenario:From the 1.1786 level (closing price of the June monthly candle), the price may start moving downward toward 1.1504 — a historical resistance level (light blue dashed line). From this level, an upward movement may begin toward the 1.1551 level — the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line).