Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 159.30 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

Since there are no U.S. statistical releases scheduled for the second half of the day, market participants should exercise maximum caution. A number of central bank meetings lie ahead, along with various geopolitical developments, which could push the USD/JPY pair in either direction. However, it should be understood that any significant strengthening of the yen will likely be seen by traders as a good opportunity to initiate new USD/JPY buy positions. At the same time, a move toward 160 per dollar will be very difficult to sustain.

Special attention should be paid to market volatility. In conditions of limited fresh information and low trading volumes, price formation becomes more sensitive to speculative sentiment and market "noise," particularly related to developments in the Middle East. Any news, even indirectly unrelated to macroeconomic indicators, may have a disproportionate impact on quotes.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 159.28 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.73 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.73, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). A rise in the pair today can be expected if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.13 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward 159.28 and 159.73 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 159.13 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.80, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if there is positive news from the Middle East.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.28 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.13 and 158.80 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses.

Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.