Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.58 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test of 155.58 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold zone, which led to the execution of Buy Scenario No. 2. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

Next, close attention should be paid to the ADP report, which acts as a leading indicator. Positive ADP data may strengthen the dollar against the Japanese yen. The ISM Services PMI is also significant. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the sector, which would support the U.S. dollar. The same applies to the dynamics of industrial production and manufacturing output, which are closely linked. An increase in industrial production volume would indicate the manufacturing sector's resilience to challenges. Unsatisfactory data, however, may raise concerns about a slowdown in economic growth.

It is clear that traders will carefully analyze each released figure in order to forecast the Federal Reserve's next steps. Strong data will give the Fed the opportunity to maintain its tight monetary policy, which would be favorable for the dollar, while weak data will fuel talk of speeding up policy easing.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 155.67 (green line on the chart), with the goal of rising to 156.06 (thicker green line). Around 156.06, I will exit purchases and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move downward from the level). You can expect the pair to rise only after strong U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to move upward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if two consecutive tests of the 155.45 price occur while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 155.67 and 156.06 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout of 155.45 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 155.18, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound). Selling pressure will return only in the case of very weak U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to move downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if two consecutive tests of the 155.67 price occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.45 and 155.18 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I provided above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.