empty
 
 
22.07.2025 12:08 PM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

On Tuesday, gold is pulling back from the round $3400 level, which acted as resistance. However, in the lead-up to the August 1 deadline for the introduction of new tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, the price of the metal—as a safe-haven asset—may increase. Market sentiment is also being influenced by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve.

According to a White House spokesperson, there is a possibility that President Trump may soon dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, on Sunday, Trump denied this claim in a post on Truth Social, calling it "typical fake news." Additionally, Republican Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna formally accused Powell of providing false testimony on two separate occasions, both related to the long-planned renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Moreover, Federal Reserve members remain divided on interest rate policy, with the majority favoring a rate cut—another factor supporting the precious metal.

FOMC member Adriana Kugler stated that the U.S. central bank should not lower rates "in the near term," noting that the Trump administration's tariffs are already affecting consumer prices. She emphasized that tight monetary policy is needed to anchor inflation expectations.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said last week that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" forecast, though she cautioned against delaying action. According to Daly, rates may ultimately stabilize at 3% or higher—above the pre-pandemic neutral level.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested that the central bank should lower its target rate at the July meeting, citing rising economic risks. He added that delaying such action could require more aggressive steps later on.

Technical Outlook: Gold prices are consolidating around the round $3400 level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating prevailing bullish momentum. A breakout above this level would likely pave the way toward the June high near $3450.

On the other hand, the nearest support is at $3365, followed by the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3358. A break below this area could weaken short-term momentum, bringing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day EMA at $3316 into focus. This level represents the last key support before the psychological $3300 level. A drop below $3300 would shift momentum in favor of the bears.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Irina Yanina
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and get $4000 more!
    In July we raffle $4000 within the Chancy Deposit campaign!
    Get a chance to win by depositing $3,000 to a trading account. Having fulfilled this condition, you become a campaign participant.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback