At the start of the new week, the EUR/USD pair remains within a moderate range and trades in a narrow channel.

Currently, quotes are hovering around the 1.1650 level, showing a slight increase due to conflicting signals in the market. Uncertainty regarding the future policy of the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts is keeping the US dollar in a defensive position.

At the same time, reports that President Donald Trump may introduce a 15–20% tax on the European Union, even if a trade agreement is reached, are weighing on the euro and the EUR/USD pair, acting as a restraining factor for further growth.

From a technical standpoint, last week's drop below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has now become resistance on the 4-hour chart, is viewed as a key trigger for bears.

However, before opening short positions, it is worth paying attention to the daily chart, where neutral oscillators are gradually moving into positive territory but remain neutral for now. Therefore, it would be reasonable to wait for a break below the multi-week low near 1.1555 to target the psychological level of 1.1500.

On the other hand, Friday's high around 1.1670 serves as the immediate barrier before the round level of 1.1700. A sustained move above this level would trigger a short-covering rally, pushing the EUR/USD pair toward interim resistance at 1.1740–1.1750 on the way to the round level of 1.1800. The recovery may continue toward the 1.1830 area, which marks the highest level since September 2021, retested on July 1 of this year, and could extend further toward the next round level of 1.1900.