Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The levels I identified in the first half of the day were not tested, so I had no trades.

Following a brief de-escalation in the Israel–Iran conflict, the euro posted a modest rebound; however, the prospects for further strengthening remain limited. Amid a temporary calm in military activity, the euro showed signs of stabilization, but this rise may be short-lived. The key factors shaping the long-term outlook for the euro remain unconvincing, significantly limiting its upward potential.

In the second half of the day, we await data from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. The market's reaction to these figures is likely to be muted, especially in light of the ongoing geopolitical developments. The sentiment index reflects the population's confidence or anxiety and indirectly indicates their willingness to spend. Inflation expectations, meanwhile, influence future behavior among both consumers and businesses. If these expectations become entrenched and begin to rise, it encourages consumers to spend now out of fear that prices will increase later.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:Buy the euro at 1.1560 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1621. At 1.1621, I plan to exit the market and reverse into short positions, aiming for a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction. It's difficult to count on strong euro growth today.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1511 twice in a row, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward 1.1560 and 1.1621 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after a move down to 1.1511 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1445, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure could return at any moment today.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1560 twice consecutively while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1511 and 1.1445 can then be expected.

On the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions
• Thick green line – suggested take-profit level, as further growth beyond this point is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions
• Thick red line – suggested take-profit level, as further downside beyond this point is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – use overbought and oversold zones to guide market entries

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with great caution. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on real-time market conditions are a fundamentally losing strategy for intraday traders.