Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are only two macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday. Although the first report looks significant on its own and the second one is directly related to the U.S. labor market, we believe neither will provoke a strong market reaction nor influence overall trader sentiment. The point is that inflation was important for the euro a year or two ago. As the European Central Bank nears the end of its easing cycle but continues to cut rates at every meeting, this indicator no longer affects monetary policy. Moreover, the market is not reacting to the European Central Bank's monetary policy easing. The euro has been rising for four months but for entirely different reasons. As for the JOLTs report, it is released with a two-month delay, and the market places more importance on unemployment reports and NonFarm Payrolls.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, we can note the speeches of Federal Reserve officials Cook, Goolsbee, and Logan. However, as we have mentioned before, speeches by central bank officials currently have no significant impact on the market since the policies and stance of central banks are already 100% clear, and the market continues to trade mainly on the "Trump factor."

We believe the ongoing trade war is the only factor that still matters for the market. The dollar's decline could continue if trade agreements with most countries are not signed before the end of the grace period. The dollar may continue to fall even without new tariffs from Trump, as the market's attitude toward the U.S. president and his policies remains extremely negative. The International Trade Court initially ruled to block Trump's tariffs, but later in the day, another court overturned that decision. Shortly after, news emerged about Trump's intention to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to trade mainly based on technical factors unless significant new information comes from Trump during the day. Thus, today, we might observe calm or even flat movements. For the euro, the key area remains 1.1413–1.1424. For the British pound, the important level is 1.3518.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.